AFL · ROUND 12 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Richmond
Sat 30 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 58
SYD to win, 97% chance
SYD 97%3% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 114
HIT Actual margin 114 · 55.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.1 | 22.2 to 30.1 | 16.2 to 36.1 | 97% | 84% | 57% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.1 | 15.4 to 35.0 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 21% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.5 | 15.0 to 34.3 | 95% | 78% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Chad Warner | CHF | 22.2 | 18.5 to 25.8 | 13.0 to 31.3 | 90% | 65% | 31% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.1 | 11.7 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.9 | 9.4 to 25.8 | 70% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.2 to 25.5 | 68% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 8.9 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 8.9 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.6 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| James Rowbottom | C | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.7 to 23.0 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.3 to 22.4 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HFFR | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harry Kyle | HBFL | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.8 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.8 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.2 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | RK | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.6 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.9 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 25.7 | 21.8 to 29.6 | 15.8 to 35.5 | 96% | 82% | 54% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.4 | 21.5 to 29.4 | 15.6 to 35.2 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 25.3 | 21.4 to 29.2 | 15.5 to 35.1 | 96% | 81% | 52% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Dion Prestia | INT | 24.1 | 20.3 to 27.9 | 14.6 to 33.7 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 23.8 | 20.0 to 27.6 | 14.3 to 33.3 | 93% | 74% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.7 to 27.8 | 79% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.2 to 27.0 | 76% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.5 to 24.3 | 61% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.4 to 24.2 | 60% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 16.0 | 12.8 to 19.1 | 8.2 to 23.8 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.6 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.0 to 23.4 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.9 to 23.3 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.5 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.5 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.7 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.0 | 4.1 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 9.3 | 7.0 to 11.7 | 3.3 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 2.9 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |