AFL · ROUND 12 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Richmond
Sat 30 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 58
SYD to win, 97% chance
SYD 97%3% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 114
HIT Actual margin 114 · 55.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 163 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Chad Warner | CHF | 86 | 71 to 101 | 48 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 75 | 61 to 90 | 39 to 111 | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| James Rowbottom | C | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Peter Ladhams | RK | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 113 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 67 | 53 to 81 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 31 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Harry Kyle | HBFL | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 96 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| James Jordon | WR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 130 |
| Harry Cunningham | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 52 | 40 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 45 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 130 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 86 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 123 | 75% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Dion Prestia | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 82 | 67 to 97 | 45 to 119 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| James Trezise | INT | 67 | 53 to 81 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 63 | 49 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |