AFL · ROUND 12 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Richmond
Sat 30 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 58
SYD to win, 97% chance
SYD 97%3% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 114
HIT Actual margin 114 · 55.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.1 to 4.3 | 78% | 55% | 30% | 12% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 72% | 44% | 19% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chad Warner | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HFFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | WR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |