AFL · ROUND 12 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Richmond
Sat 30 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 58
SYD to win, 97% chance
SYD 97%3% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 114
HIT Actual margin 114 · 55.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 81% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 58% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HFFR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chad Warner | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Kyle | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Rowbottom | C | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Miller | FB | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.1 | 2.9 to 12.9 | 89% | 82% | 73% | 61% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.9 to 12.8 | 89% | 82% | 72% | 60% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 72% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dion Prestia | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |