AFL · ROUND 12 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Richmond
Sat 30 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 58
SYD to win, 97% chance
SYD 97%3% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 114
HIT Actual margin 114 · 55.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | C | 5.4 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 82% | 71% | 56% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chad Warner | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | RK | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dion Prestia | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |