AFL · ROUND 12 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Essendon
Sun 31 May 2026, 5:20pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WCE by 3
WCE to win, 54% chance
WCE 54%46% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.5 | 15.0 to 34.3 | 95% | 78% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 24.0 | 20.2 to 27.8 | 14.5 to 33.5 | 94% | 75% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.3 | 14.1 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.3 to 28.8 | 83% | 50% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.2 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.9 | 10.8 to 28.0 | 80% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 9.9 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.4 to 25.7 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.5 | 9.2 to 25.3 | 67% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.8 to 23.2 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.5 | 49% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.0 to 21.9 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.7 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.2 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 28.4 | 24.3 to 32.5 | 18.1 to 38.8 | 98% | 91% | 70% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.0 | 23.9 to 32.0 | 17.7 to 38.2 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 26.7 | 22.7 to 30.7 | 16.7 to 36.8 | 97% | 86% | 61% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.7 | 12.2 to 30.1 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 8.9 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 8.8 to 24.8 | 64% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.1 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.2 to 23.9 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.9 to 23.3 | 55% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.8 to 23.1 | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.3 to 22.3 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.1 to 22.0 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Archie Perkins | R | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.1 to 21.9 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | BPL | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.3 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.8 to 14.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |