AFL · ROUND 12 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Essendon
Sun 31 May 2026, 5:20pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WCE by 3
WCE to win, 54% chance
WCE 54%46% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 90 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 78 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 114 | 63% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 109 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 70 | 56 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 61 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Harvey Johnston | HFFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 73% | 58% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 142 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 55% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 95 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 73 | 58 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 72 | 57 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Archie Perkins | R | 66 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Max Kondogiannis | BPL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Archer May | FPL | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |