AFL · ROUND 12 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Essendon
Sun 31 May 2026, 5:20pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WCE by 3
WCE to win, 54% chance
WCE 54%46% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.1 | 2.9 to 12.8 | 89% | 82% | 72% | 61% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.6 | 2.6 to 12.3 | 87% | 79% | 68% | 56% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.4 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.4 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 63% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | HFFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben McKay | CHB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.1 to 11.2 | 82% | 71% | 59% | 45% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 35% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Archie Perkins | R | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | BPL | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |