AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Sat 30 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
WB 47%53% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.3 | 17.9 to 38.5 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 38% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.9 | 22.0 to 29.8 | 16.0 to 35.8 | 96% | 83% | 56% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 25.4 | 21.5 to 29.3 | 15.6 to 35.2 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.0 | 21.2 to 28.9 | 15.3 to 34.8 | 95% | 80% | 50% | 20% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.1 | 14.7 to 33.9 | 94% | 77% | 45% | 17% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.4 to 33.4 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.3 | 11.9 to 29.7 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 18.6 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.2 to 27.0 | 76% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.4 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tim English | INT | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.3 to 23.9 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 7.9 to 23.4 | 55% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.8 to 21.5 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 13.5 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 10.8 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 30.3 | 26.1 to 34.6 | 19.6 to 41.0 | 99% | 94% | 79% | 52% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 26.7 | 22.7 to 30.7 | 16.6 to 36.7 | 97% | 86% | 61% | 30% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.4 | 15.7 to 35.3 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 23% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 23.8 | 20.0 to 27.6 | 14.3 to 33.3 | 94% | 74% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.2 | 14.1 to 32.9 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | FPR | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.6 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.7 to 27.8 | 79% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.7 to 27.7 | 79% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.8 to 26.4 | 73% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.8 to 26.4 | 73% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.4 to 25.7 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.0 to 25.1 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 16.1 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.2 to 23.9 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.2 to 23.8 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.7 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 15.2 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.6 to 22.8 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.8 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Wil Parker | HBFL | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |