AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Sat 30 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
WB 47%53% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 74% | 59% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Ed Richards | R | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 137 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 95 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Tim English | INT | 91 | 75 to 106 | 53 to 129 | 81% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 86 | 71 to 100 | 48 to 123 | 75% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 47 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 54 | 41 to 67 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 51 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 92 | 76 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 69% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 79 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Jordan De Goey | FPR | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 74 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Ned Long | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 108 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Wil Parker | HBFL | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 49 | 36 to 61 | 18 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |