AFL · ROUND 12 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Sat 30 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
WB 47%53% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 73% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 72% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Adam Treloar | INT | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim English | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | INT | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.6 | 2.3 to 11.0 | 90% | 82% | 72% | 59% | 45% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 72% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wil Parker | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |