AFL · ROUND 13 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Thu 4 Jun 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 15
GEE to win, 72% chance
ADE 28%72% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 23.2 | 19.5 to 27.0 | 13.8 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 23.2 | 19.4 to 26.9 | 13.8 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.7 | 13.6 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.4 | 12.7 to 30.8 | 89% | 62% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.3 | 12.6 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.0 | 11.6 to 29.3 | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.3 | 10.4 to 27.4 | 77% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.3 | 8.2 to 24.0 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.2 to 22.3 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.9 | 7.2 to 22.4 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.1 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.4 to 21.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.8 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.8 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 9.5 | 7.0 to 11.9 | 3.4 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.9 | 3.3 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.2 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.8 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 32.2 | 27.9 to 36.6 | 21.3 to 43.2 | 100% | 96% | 86% | 63% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 34.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 29.7 | 25.5 to 34.0 | 19.2 to 40.3 | 99% | 93% | 77% | 48% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 23.6 | 19.8 to 27.3 | 14.1 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.6 | 12.8 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.2 | 11.8 to 29.5 | 85% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.2 to 27.0 | 76% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 9.9 to 26.6 | 73% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.5 to 26.0 | 71% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 17.4 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.2 to 25.5 | 68% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.9 | 8.7 to 24.7 | 63% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.4 to 24.2 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.6 to 22.9 | 52% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.8 to 21.7 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 13.9 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.5 to 21.2 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.5 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 5.9 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.4 to 19.4 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 3.9 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.8 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |