AFL · ROUND 13 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Thu 4 Jun 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 15
GEE to win, 72% chance
ADE 28%72% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 137 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 47% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 89 | 74 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 88 | 73 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 87 | 72 to 102 | 49 to 125 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| James Peatling | RR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 46 to 121 | 72% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 77 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 114 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 128 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 95 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| James Borlase | FB | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 40 | 28 to 52 | 10 to 70 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 112 | 95 to 128 | 71 to 152 | 95% | 90% | 81% | 68% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 92% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 44 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 116 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 74 | 60 to 89 | 38 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 70 | 56 to 85 | 35 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 102 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFR | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |