AFL · ROUND 13 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Thu 4 Jun 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 15
GEE to win, 72% chance
ADE 28%72% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 69% | 40% | 15% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 60% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.8 to 3.4 | 0.3 to 4.8 | 83% | 64% | 39% | 19% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 70% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 64% | 33% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |