AFL · ROUND 13 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Thu 4 Jun 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 15
GEE to win, 72% chance
ADE 28%72% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 7.4 | 5.2 to 9.5 | 2.5 to 12.2 | 86% | 78% | 67% | 55% | 42% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 45% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 35% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Stewart | FB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 50% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |