AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Collingwood v Melbourne
Mon 8 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 4
COL to win, 56% chance
COL 56%44% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 30.9 | 26.6 to 35.2 | 20.2 to 41.7 | 99% | 95% | 82% | 56% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 35.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 26.0 | 22.0 to 29.9 | 16.1 to 35.9 | 96% | 84% | 56% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.4 | 14.9 to 34.2 | 95% | 78% | 47% | 18% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.2 | 13.3 to 31.8 | 91% | 67% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.5 | 12.8 to 31.0 | 89% | 63% | 29% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 21.2 | 17.6 to 24.7 | 12.2 to 30.1 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.6 to 27.8 | 79% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.3 | 10.4 to 27.4 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.2 to 25.4 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.4 | 9.0 to 25.2 | 66% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 8.8 to 24.8 | 64% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.7 to 24.7 | 63% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 15.1 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.5 to 22.7 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.0 to 21.9 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Beau McCreery | FPR | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 6.9 to 21.9 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.3 | 6.9 to 21.8 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.6 to 21.3 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FPL | 10.4 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.2 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.7 | 15.2 to 34.5 | 95% | 79% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.1 | 14.7 to 33.9 | 94% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.4 | 12.7 to 30.9 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.5 to 30.7 | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.6 | 12.1 to 29.9 | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.3 | 11.8 to 29.6 | 85% | 55% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 19.5 | 16.1 to 23.0 | 10.9 to 28.2 | 80% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 19.4 | 15.9 to 22.8 | 10.8 to 28.0 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.4 | 9.7 to 26.4 | 72% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.4 | 8.3 to 24.1 | 60% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.7 | 57% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 7.9 to 23.4 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.4 to 22.7 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.5 to 21.2 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.4 to 20.9 | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.2 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.6 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 10.4 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.4 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FPL | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |