AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Collingwood v Melbourne
Mon 8 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 4
COL to win, 56% chance
COL 56%44% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 117 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 94 | 78 to 109 | 55 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 94 | 78 to 109 | 55 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 129 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 89 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 82 | 67 to 97 | 45 to 119 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 77 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 114 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 38 to 110 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 72 | 58 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Beau McCreery | FPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 31 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FPL | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 61 | 48 to 74 | 27 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 82% | 69% | 54% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 54 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 126 | 78% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 126 | 78% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 116 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 74 | 60 to 89 | 38 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 108 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Brody Mihocek | FPL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 54 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |