AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Collingwood v Melbourne
Mon 8 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 4
COL to win, 56% chance
COL 56%44% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel McStay | INT | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 58% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | FPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Mihocek | FPL | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 62% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |