AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Collingwood v Melbourne
Mon 8 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 4
COL to win, 56% chance
COL 56%44% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 8
MISS Actual margin 8 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.4 to 11.9 | 85% | 76% | 64% | 51% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 81% | 70% | 57% | 43% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 34% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 64% | 49% | 34% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Beau McCreery | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Podhajski | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | BPR | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.8 to 12.8 | 89% | 81% | 72% | 60% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 45% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.4 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ed Langdon | CHF | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 69% | 55% | 39% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 54% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 63% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 29% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |