AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Essendon v Carlton
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 33
CAR to win, 88% chance
ESS 12%88% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 29.8 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 100 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.4 / inside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 108 / inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Sam Durham | C | 22.6 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 85 / outside our 90% range: 132 |
| Mason Redman | BPL | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 19.6 / outside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Archie Perkins | FPL | 15.8 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 15.8 / outside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 15.5 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 14.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 13.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 13.0 / outside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / outside our 90% range: 99 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 12.9 / - | 0.3 / - | 2.8 / - | 2.1 / - | 59 / - |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 11.8 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 11.0 / - | 0.0 / - | 1.4 / - | 1.9 / - | 49 / - |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 10.8 / - | 0.9 / - | 3.3 / - | 1.7 / - | 53 / - |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 10.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 8.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 41 / inside our 50% range: 39 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 28.1 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 26.9 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.8 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 24.0 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 22.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 22.3 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 19.6 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 19.2 / - | -0.0 / - | 2.8 / - | 3.6 / - | 73 / - |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 18.1 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.7 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 17.1 / - | 0.0 / - | 3.8 / - | 2.2 / - | 68 / - |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 16.7 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 15.9 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 15.9 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 14.9 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 14.5 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.3 / - | 0.0 / - | 7.8 / - | 0.9 / - | 55 / - |
| Flynn Young | INT | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 10.4 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 41 / inside our 90% range: 57 |