AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Essendon v Carlton
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 33
CAR to win, 88% chance
ESS 12%88% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 29.8 | 25.6 to 34.1 | 19.2 to 40.4 | 99% | 94% | 77% | 49% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.4 | 24.3 to 32.5 | 18.1 to 38.7 | 98% | 91% | 70% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 22.6 | 18.9 to 26.3 | 13.3 to 31.9 | 91% | 68% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPL | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.3 | 11.9 to 29.6 | 85% | 55% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.0 | 10.9 to 28.2 | 80% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.8 | 10.0 to 26.8 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.7 | 10.0 to 26.7 | 74% | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.8 | 8.6 to 24.6 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 16.3 | 13.1 to 19.4 | 8.4 to 24.2 | 60% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPL | 15.8 | 12.7 to 19.0 | 8.0 to 23.7 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.0 to 23.6 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.6 | 7.8 to 23.2 | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.0 to 21.9 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.8 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.5 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 28.1 | 24.0 to 32.2 | 17.8 to 38.3 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 26.9 | 22.9 to 31.0 | 16.9 to 37.0 | 97% | 87% | 62% | 31% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.6 | 15.1 to 34.5 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 24.0 | 20.2 to 27.8 | 14.5 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 22.9 | 19.2 to 26.7 | 13.6 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.0 | 13.1 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.7 | 12.2 to 30.1 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.0 | 10.9 to 28.2 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.6 to 27.7 | 79% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.8 to 26.4 | 73% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.0 to 25.2 | 66% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.9 | 8.7 to 24.7 | 64% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.1 | 8.1 to 23.8 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.7 | 57% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 14.9 | 11.8 to 17.9 | 7.3 to 22.5 | 49% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.5 | 7.0 to 22.0 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.8 to 21.7 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.5 | 35% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Flynn Young | INT | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 10.4 | 7.8 to 12.9 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.9 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |