AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Essendon v Carlton
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 33
CAR to win, 88% chance
ESS 12%88% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 87% | 77% | 63% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 140 | 89% | 80% | 66% | 50% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Sam Durham | C | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 123 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 132 |
| Mason Redman | BPL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 116 | 66% | 49% | 31% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Archie Perkins | FPL | 71 | 57 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 99 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 54 | 41 to 67 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 95 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 130 | 82% | 69% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 92 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 131 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| George Hewett | INT | 86 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 123 | 75% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 79 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 73 | 59 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | - |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 103 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 70 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |