AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Essendon v Carlton
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 33
CAR to win, 88% chance
ESS 12%88% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 77% | 52% | 26% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 71% | 43% | 18% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jagga Smith | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |