AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Essendon v Carlton
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 33
CAR to win, 88% chance
ESS 12%88% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Redman | BPL | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.7 | 84% | 74% | 63% | 50% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 76% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 74% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.8 to 12.8 | 89% | 81% | 72% | 60% | 48% | - |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 83% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 6.7 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.1 to 11.3 | 82% | 72% | 59% | 46% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 81% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 80% | 70% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | - |
| Jagga Smith | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |