AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Essendon v Carlton
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 33
CAR to win, 88% chance
ESS 12%88% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Setterfield | R | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 84% | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Nick Bryan | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nik Cox | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 77% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 72% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | - |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Blake Acres | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Flynn Young | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |