AFL · ROUND 13 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 55% chance
GCS 55%45% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
MISS Actual margin 31 · 34.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.4 | 17.9 to 38.5 | 98% | 90% | 70% | 39% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 25.4 | 21.5 to 29.3 | 15.6 to 35.2 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.6 | 15.1 to 34.4 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| John Noble | WR | 24.1 | 20.2 to 27.9 | 14.5 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 16% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 23.6 | 19.9 to 27.4 | 14.2 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 21.4 | 17.8 to 24.9 | 12.3 to 30.4 | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.2 | 11.8 to 29.5 | 85% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 20.2 | 16.7 to 23.7 | 11.4 to 29.0 | 83% | 52% | 19% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.8 | 8.6 to 24.6 | 63% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.5 to 24.4 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.7 | 57% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Will Graham | CHF | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.1 | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.8 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 3.9 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.1 to 15.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.5 | 2.5 to 13.9 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.2 | 2.3 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.3 | 18.7 to 39.6 | 99% | 92% | 74% | 45% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.3 | 22.3 to 30.2 | 16.3 to 36.2 | 97% | 85% | 58% | 27% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 23.2 | 19.5 to 27.0 | 13.8 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.2 | 11.8 to 29.5 | 85% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.6 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.0 | 10.9 to 28.2 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.6 to 27.8 | 79% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.2 to 27.1 | 76% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 17.5 | 14.2 to 20.8 | 9.3 to 25.7 | 69% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.6 to 21.4 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.0 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | BPL | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 12.9 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 10.4 | 7.8 to 12.9 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.4 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.3 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |