AFL · ROUND 13 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 55% chance
GCS 55%45% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
MISS Actual margin 31 · 34.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 140 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 50% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 135 | 86% | 75% | 60% | 43% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| John Noble | WR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 127 | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 146 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 49 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 79 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 91 | 40 to 113 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Will Graham | CHF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Ben King | FF | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 98 | 83 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 47% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 91 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 130 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 123 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 80 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 38 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 38 to 110 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 73 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 65 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 128 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Darragh Joyce | BPL | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 75 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |