AFL · ROUND 13 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 55% chance
GCS 55%45% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
MISS Actual margin 31 · 34.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FF | 2.1 | 1.4 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 77% | 52% | 27% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Graham | CHF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 67% | 36% | 13% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |