AFL · ROUND 13 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 55% chance
GCS 55%45% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
MISS Actual margin 31 · 34.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Collins | FB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| John Noble | WR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Will Graham | CHF | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | BPL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 69% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |