AFL · ROUND 13 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 55% chance
GCS 55%45% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
MISS Actual margin 31 · 34.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 88% | 80% | 69% | 56% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Graham | CHF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 86% | 77% | 65% | 51% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.9 | 0.1 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | BPL | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |