AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Fri 5 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.1 | 15.4 to 34.9 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 21% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.8 | 15.2 to 34.6 | 95% | 79% | 49% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 23.2 | 19.5 to 27.0 | 13.8 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 22.1 | 18.4 to 25.8 | 12.9 to 31.3 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.7 | 12.1 to 30.1 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.4 | 11.9 to 29.7 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.6 | 11.3 to 28.9 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 20.0 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.2 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Will Day | R | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.2 | 11.1 to 28.4 | 81% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.5 | 10.6 to 27.7 | 78% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 18.5 | 15.1 to 21.9 | 10.1 to 26.9 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.8 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 16.3 | 13.1 to 19.5 | 8.4 to 24.2 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.5 | 7.7 to 23.1 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.5 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.2 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.8 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.7 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | HFFL | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.9 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 2.4 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 28.7 | 24.6 to 32.8 | 18.3 to 39.1 | 98% | 91% | 72% | 42% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 27.3 | 23.3 to 31.3 | 17.2 to 37.4 | 98% | 88% | 64% | 33% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 27.1 | 23.1 to 31.1 | 17.0 to 37.2 | 97% | 87% | 63% | 32% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.6 | 21.7 to 29.5 | 15.8 to 35.5 | 96% | 82% | 54% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.4 to 33.4 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 15% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.5 | 14.2 to 33.2 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.7 to 29.3 | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.3 to 28.8 | 83% | 50% | 18% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.2 to 23.9 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.7 | 57% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 7.9 to 23.5 | 56% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.5 to 21.1 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |