AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Fri 5 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 94 | 78 to 109 | 55 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 85% | 72% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 130 | 82% | 69% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 126 | 78% | 64% | 46% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 88 | 72 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 82 | 67 to 97 | 45 to 119 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 44 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Will Day | R | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 115 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 54 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Cameron Nairn | HFFL | 43 | 31 to 55 | 12 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 84% | 73% | 58% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 97 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 136 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Ed Richards | R | 97 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 136 | 87% | 77% | 62% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 130 | 82% | 69% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 91 | 75 to 106 | 53 to 129 | 81% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Tim English | RK | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 126 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 82 | 68 to 97 | 45 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 78 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Rory Lobb | BPL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 66 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |