AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Fri 5 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | BPL | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.8 to 12.7 | 88% | 81% | 71% | 60% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 7.3 | 5.2 to 9.4 | 2.5 to 12.1 | 86% | 77% | 66% | 54% | 41% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 81% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 82% | 71% | 59% | 45% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 69% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Day | R | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Coffield | INT | 7.4 | 5.2 to 9.5 | 2.5 to 12.2 | 86% | 78% | 67% | 55% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |