AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Fri 5 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.2 / outside our 90% range: 36.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 24.9 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 23.2 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.3 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 22.1 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.8 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 20.1 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.8 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 20.0 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Will Day | R | 19.7 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.3 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 115 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 19.1 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 18.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 18.1 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 15.4 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 13.0 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.6 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 10.0 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Cameron Nairn | HFFL | 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 28.7 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 105 / inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 27.3 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 27.1 / inside our 90% range: 36.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 97 / inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.6 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 23.9 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 23.7 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 20.5 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 20.0 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Tim English | RK | 16.0 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 15.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 15.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 13.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 13.0 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 12.0 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Rory Lobb | BPL | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 11.6 / outside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 11.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 10.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 8.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.0 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 8.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 21 |