AFL · ROUND 13 · MCG
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Fri 5 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 9
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
MISS Actual margin 6 · 15.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Day | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 53% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Nairn | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 73% | 58% | 42% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 61% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |