AFL · ROUND 13 · HANDS OVAL
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 12:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 10
FRE to win, 66% chance
NM 34%66% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 124
HIT Actual margin 124 · 113.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.0 | 26.7 to 35.3 | 20.2 to 41.7 | 99% | 95% | 82% | 56% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 27.4 | 23.4 to 31.5 | 17.2 to 37.6 | 98% | 88% | 65% | 34% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.1 | 15.4 to 34.9 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 24.4 | 20.6 to 28.2 | 14.8 to 34.0 | 94% | 77% | 46% | 17% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Zac Fisher | INT | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.3 | 14.1 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Colby McKercher | C | 23.4 | 19.7 to 27.2 | 14.0 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.6 | 12.1 to 30.0 | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.2 to 27.1 | 76% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.6 | 9.9 to 26.6 | 74% | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.2 | 9.7 to 26.2 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Luke McDonald | HBFL | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.2 to 23.9 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.0 to 23.5 | 56% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | INT | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.8 to 21.7 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.7 to 16.2 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.5 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.4 to 15.7 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 2.9 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.5 | 2.5 to 13.9 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.2 | 2.3 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 24.2 | 20.4 to 28.1 | 14.7 to 33.8 | 94% | 76% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 22.7 | 19.0 to 26.4 | 13.4 to 32.0 | 91% | 68% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 22.2 | 18.5 to 25.8 | 13.0 to 31.4 | 90% | 65% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.6 | 12.8 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.4 | 12.0 to 29.8 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.9 | 11.5 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.4 to 27.4 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.4 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.2 to 25.5 | 68% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.5 | 9.1 to 25.4 | 67% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 8.8 to 25.0 | 65% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 16.1 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.2 to 24.0 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.8 to 23.3 | 55% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.9 | 7.3 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.5 | 7.0 to 22.0 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.2 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.3 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.1 to 15.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.7 to 14.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.2 | 1.7 to 12.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |