AFL · ROUND 13 · HANDS OVAL
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 12:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 10
FRE to win, 66% chance
NM 34%66% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 124
HIT Actual margin 124 · 113.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 111 | 95 to 128 | 70 to 152 | 95% | 90% | 80% | 68% | 52% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 131 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 93 | 78 to 108 | 54 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 127 | 79% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Zac Fisher | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 48 to 123 | 75% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Colby McKercher | C | 81 | 66 to 96 | 44 to 117 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 116 | 66% | 49% | 31% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 77 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 114 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 73 | 58 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 71 | 56 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Luke McDonald | HBFL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 61 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Riley Hardeman | INT | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 81 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 97 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 136 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 92 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 44 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 79 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 39 to 111 | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Hayden Young | R | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 38 | 27 to 50 | 9 to 68 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |