AFL · ROUND 13 · HANDS OVAL
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 12:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 10
FRE to win, 66% chance
NM 34%66% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 124
HIT Actual margin 124 · 113.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 84% | 74% | 61% | 47% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 76% | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 73% | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 43% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke McDonald | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Fisher | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 82% | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |