AFL · ROUND 13 · SCG
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 36
SYD to win, 90% chance
SYD 90%10% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.3 | 17.9 to 38.5 | 98% | 90% | 70% | 39% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 26.7 | 22.8 to 30.8 | 16.7 to 36.8 | 97% | 86% | 61% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 25.4 | 21.5 to 29.3 | 15.6 to 35.2 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 22.8 | 19.1 to 26.5 | 13.5 to 32.1 | 92% | 69% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 22.3 | 18.7 to 26.0 | 13.1 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.4 | 12.7 to 30.9 | 89% | 62% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.8 | 16.3 to 23.2 | 11.1 to 28.4 | 81% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 10.9 to 28.1 | 80% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.7 to 27.9 | 79% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.8 | 10.7 to 27.9 | 79% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.6 to 27.8 | 79% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.3 | 9.7 to 26.2 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 17.5 | 14.2 to 20.8 | 9.3 to 25.7 | 69% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.2 to 25.4 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.4 to 24.3 | 61% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 6.9 to 21.8 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.3 to 20.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.5 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.5 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 10.4 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.2 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | RR | 28.9 | 24.7 to 33.0 | 18.5 to 39.3 | 98% | 92% | 73% | 43% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.3 | 17.9 to 38.5 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 24.7 | 20.9 to 28.6 | 15.0 to 34.4 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFL | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.4 | 12.7 to 30.9 | 89% | 62% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.2 | 11.8 to 29.5 | 85% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Max Hall | WL | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.2 | 11.8 to 29.6 | 85% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | 20.2 | 16.7 to 23.7 | 11.4 to 29.0 | 83% | 51% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.0 to 28.3 | 81% | 47% | 16% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | CHF | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.5 | 10.6 to 27.6 | 78% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.5 | 9.8 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | C | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.3 | 8.2 to 24.0 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.5 to 22.8 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.3 to 20.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.0 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.4 to 19.4 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.4 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.9 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 8.6 | 6.3 to 11.0 | 2.8 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |