AFL · ROUND 13 · SCG
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 36
SYD to win, 90% chance
SYD 90%10% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 73% | 58% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 100 | 84 to 115 | 60 to 139 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 49% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 92 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 131 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Chad Warner | C | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 127 | 79% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 124 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 45 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | - |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 74 | 60 to 88 | 38 to 110 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 69 | 55 to 84 | 34 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| James Jordon | WR | 67 | 53 to 81 | 32 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 40 | 28 to 51 | 10 to 69 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 49% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 89 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 47 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFL | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Max Hall | WL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 44 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 76 | 62 to 91 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Darcy Wilson | CHF | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 72 | 57 to 86 | 36 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | C | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 44 | 31 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 40 | 28 to 52 | 10 to 69 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |