AFL · ROUND 13 · SCG
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 36
SYD to win, 90% chance
SYD 90%10% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.1 to 4.4 | 80% | 57% | 32% | 13% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harry Kyle | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 67% | 36% | 12% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Hall | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |