AFL · ROUND 13 · SCG
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 36
SYD to win, 90% chance
SYD 90%10% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 6.9 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 79% | 67% | 54% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 77% | 65% | 52% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 13% | - |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| William Edwards | BPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.5 | 83% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.5 | 83% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.5 | 83% | 73% | 61% | 48% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | RR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | CHF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Max Hall | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |