AFL · ROUND 13 · SCG
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sun 7 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 36
SYD to win, 90% chance
SYD 90%10% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 85% | 74% | 62% | 47% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 73% | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Jordon | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jai Serong | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Riley Bice | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| William Edwards | BPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae | INT | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 80% | 68% | 54% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 60% | 44% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Max Hall | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Wilson | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |