AFL · ROUND 13 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 6:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 14
PA to win, 70% chance
WCE 30%70% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 7.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.1 | 15.5 to 35.0 | 96% | 81% | 52% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 24.0 | 20.2 to 27.8 | 14.4 to 33.5 | 94% | 75% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 23.2 | 19.5 to 27.0 | 13.8 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.6 | 11.4 to 28.9 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.5 | 10.6 to 27.6 | 78% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.5 to 27.5 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.3 | 10.4 to 27.4 | 77% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.8 | 10.0 to 26.8 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Milan Murdock | HFFR | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.4 | 9.7 to 26.4 | 72% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 8.8 to 24.8 | 64% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.6 to 23.0 | 52% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.7 to 21.5 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 13.9 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.5 to 21.2 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.2 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.2 to 20.7 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.6 | 35% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.2 | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.9 | 4.0 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.0 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.8 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 30.7 | 26.4 to 34.9 | 19.9 to 41.4 | 99% | 95% | 80% | 54% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 23.1 | 19.4 to 26.8 | 13.7 to 32.5 | 92% | 70% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 22.9 | 19.2 to 26.6 | 13.6 to 32.2 | 92% | 69% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.6 to 30.7 | 88% | 61% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.6 | 11.4 to 28.9 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.1 to 27.0 | 75% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.1 to 25.3 | 67% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.6 | 7.8 to 23.2 | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.3 to 22.5 | 49% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.1 to 22.1 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.0 to 21.9 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.8 to 21.6 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.3 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.0 to 20.3 | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.6 to 19.7 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.6 to 19.7 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Cochrane | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.2 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.8 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |