AFL · ROUND 13 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide
Sat 6 Jun 2026, 6:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 14
PA to win, 70% chance
WCE 30%70% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 7.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.6 | 2.6 to 12.3 | 87% | 79% | 68% | 56% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.3 to 11.7 | 84% | 75% | 63% | 50% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.1 to 11.3 | 82% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 71% | 57% | 43% | 29% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 69% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 63% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Milan Murdock | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.4 to 11.9 | 85% | 76% | 65% | 52% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Cochrane | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |