AFL · ROUND 14 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS
Fri 12 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 25
GEE to win, 83% chance
GEE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 45
HIT Actual margin 45 · 19.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.7 | 26.4 to 35.0 | 19.7 to 41.8 | 98% | 93% | 80% | 56% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 28.5 | 24.3 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.2 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 39% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.5 | 9.9 to 28.0 | 76% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 18.4 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFL | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.7 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.8 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | BPR | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| George Stevens | INT | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 9.0 | 6.3 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.3 | 24.1 to 32.5 | 17.6 to 39.0 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| John Noble | CHB | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 96% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.6 | 14.6 to 34.7 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.4 to 34.4 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | FPL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WL | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFR | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Jepson | WR | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 2.0 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 8.3 | 5.8 to 10.8 | 1.8 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |