AFL · ROUND 14 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS
Fri 12 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 25
GEE to win, 83% chance
GEE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 45
HIT Actual margin 45 · 19.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 76% | 62% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 101 | 85 to 118 | 61 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 54% | 38% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Tom Atkins | R | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Oisin Mullin | BPR | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| George Stevens | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 133 |
| John Noble | CHB | 100 | 84 to 117 | 61 to 140 | 89% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Sam Clohesy | FPL | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Ben Long | HFFR | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Ben King | FF | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Zeke Uwland | WL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Ben Jepson | WR | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 76 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |