AFL · ROUND 14 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS
Fri 12 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 25
GEE to win, 83% chance
GEE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 45
HIT Actual margin 45 · 19.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | R | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 46% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 66% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | BPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 49% | 30% | 18% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| George Stevens | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 88% | 79% | 66% | 54% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 61% | 41% | 23% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 56% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Jepson | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| John Noble | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |