AFL · ROUND 14 · MCG
Melbourne v Essendon
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 37
MEL to win, 91% chance
MEL 91%9% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 45
HIT Actual margin 45 · 7.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 24.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.7 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 22.8 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.6 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 96 / inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 21.9 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 110 / inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 17.1 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 15.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 15.1 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 15.1 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 13.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.4 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 10.0 / outside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 47 / outside our 90% range: 83 |
| Lukas Cooke | HBFR | 10.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.6 / inside our 50% range: 32.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 106 / inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Archie Roberts | BPL | 28.1 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 97 / outside our 90% range: 44 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 23.2 / outside our 90% range: 34.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 93 / inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Sam Durham | C | 22.2 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 21.7 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 21.2 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 17.2 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 16.9 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 16.7 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jordan Ridley | INT | 15.9 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 15.7 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 15.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 11.3 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ben McKay | FPL | 10.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | FPR | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Hussien El Achkar | CHB | 8.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 38 |