AFL · ROUND 14 · MCG
Melbourne v Essendon
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 37
MEL to win, 91% chance
MEL 91%9% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 45
HIT Actual margin 45 · 7.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.6 | 14.6 to 34.7 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.1 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.3 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 51% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 45% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 10.0 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Lukas Cooke | HBFR | 10.0 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.6 | 24.4 to 32.8 | 17.9 to 39.4 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Archie Roberts | BPL | 28.1 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 38% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.8 | 92% | 68% | 34% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 17.2 | 13.9 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 16.9 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | INT | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.2 | 7.5 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ben McKay | FPL | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | FPR | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | CHB | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |